In volatile markets, the temptation to move to the sidelines is strong—but the cost of mistiming the market can be significant. We’re highlighting key research from BlackRock, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, and Fidelity that illustrates why long-term investing through market ups and downs is so critical. These insights are especially valuable for investors wondering whether to step back during periods of uncertainty.
From missing just a handful of the market’s best days to the historical pattern of strong rebounds following sharp declines, the data tells a consistent story: staying invested is often the best strategy.
Blackrock: Impact of Missing the Market’s Best Days1
A hypothetical $100,000 investment in the S&P 500 from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2024, would have grown to $717,046 if fully invested. However, missing just the top 5 days during this period would have reduced the investment’s value to $452,884. Missing more of these top-performing days would have further diminished returns:
This data underscores the significant impact that missing just a few key days can have on long-term investment growth.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
“Over the last 20 years, seven of the 10 best days in markets occurred within just 15 days of the 10 worst days.”
— J.P. Morgan Asset Management2
“Missing the 10 best days of the market over the past 20 years would have reduced a portfolio’s annualized return by almost 50%.”
— J.P. Morgan Asset Management3
These insights highlight just how difficult—and costly—market timing can be. The best days often arrive on the heels of the worst, meaning investors who move to the sidelines during downturns risk missing the powerful recoveries that follow. Staying invested through volatility remains one of the most effective ways to capture long-term growth.
Fidelity Investments
“If an investor were out of the market for just the best five return-days over the lifetime of their investments, it could have a meaningful impact to their returns.”
— Fidelity Investments4
If you had stayed invested in the S&P 500 from 1980 through 2022, you would have earned an average annual return of 11.4%. But if you missed just the best 5 days, your return would have dropped to 9.0%—and missing the best 30 days would have cut your return nearly in half, to 6.0%.
Ceva Advisors Key Takeaway
Attempting to sidestep market downturns often leads to missing the powerful rebounds that follow. Because the best days frequently occur close to the worst ones, staying invested—especially during periods of volatility—is essential to capturing long-term growth and staying on the path towards your investment goals.
1 “Strategies for Volatile Markets.” BlackRock. Accessed April 14, 2025. https://www.blackrock.com/us/financial-professionals/literature/investor-education/strategies-for-volatile-markets-one-pager-va-us.pdf.
2 “Top Market Takeaways: 5 Thoughts on the Markets.” J.P. Morgan. Accessed April 14, 2025. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets/top-market-takeaways/tmt-5-thoughts-on-the-markets-tariff-tantrum.
3 “J.P. Morgan Asset Management Releases 2025 Guide to Retirement.” PR Newswire, February 6, 2025. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/jp-morgan-asset-management-releases-2025-guide-to-retirement-302390525.html.
4 “Don’t Risk Missing the Market’s Best Days.” Fidelity Investments. Accessed April 14, 2025. https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/dont-miss-best-days.pdf.
This article is produced by Ceva Capital dba Ceva Advisors. The information contained in this report is informational and intended solely to provide educational content to our clients and other readers that we find relevant and interesting. Opinions expressed are just that, and are current only as of the data of publication Nothing in this document should be construed as investment advice; we provide advice on an individualized basis only after understanding your circumstances and needs. Information provided comes from sources we believe are reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed.
