Looking at August in the rearview mirror, it was a good one for the Englund family, the Skurdal family, and US stocks. The Englunds had their annual trip to Cannon Beach, joined by siblings, cousins, and close friends for a stretch of time together on the Oregon coast, while the Skurdals visited northern Michigan for some extended family time. Scenic destinations and family time were a common thread for our team, making for some sweet highlights in the month. And for anyone wondering: the image below is of Lake Michigan, not off the coast of Hawaii.
For the markets, the big story was US stocks’ performance, with the S&P 500 posting its first up month since May.
Stocks Rally to New Records, But Bonds, Oil, and the Fed Aren’t So Sure
Investors finally got the rebound they’d been waiting for. The S&P 500 rose 2.7% in August including dividends, touching a new all-time high on August 13 and posting its first winning month since May. Tech stocks led the charge, climbing 6.2%, while European markets set their own records and emerging market stocks joined the rally. The broader economy held up its end too: business activity in both Europe and the US came in strong, and forecasters now expect the fastest pace of US growth in over a year this quarter. Even inflation played along, with prices up just 0.1% in July and the yearly rate easing to 3.4% from 3.5% as energy costs fell.
A few signals pulled the other way. On August 28, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a notably hawkish speech, warning that this summer’s improved inflation numbers “do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.” Investors listened, and the odds of a September rate hike jumped from around one in three before the speech to roughly two out of three after it. Longer term interest rates climbed to their highest levels in years as well, helped along by a surprise announcement from the US Treasury that it would roughly double its long term debt buybacks, a move that can work against savers. Gold was the biggest beneficiary, climbing nearly 10% for the month as investors sought safety. Tensions also flared again near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for oil shipments: US forces struck Iranian targets on August 30, the first such strikes since late July, after reports that Iran was preparing to mine the waterway. Iran struck back at US forces in Jordan. Oil swung hard through the month but ended only slightly higher.
Timing is what ties these two stories together. The good news, cooling inflation and a strong economy, is built on July’s data, from before tensions flared again in August. The more cautious signals, a Fed in no rush to ease up and rising long term rates, are bets on what August’s own numbers will show once they land in the first half of September. Stocks rallied on last month’s report card, while the bond market is already grading the next one. Both reactions make sense: they’re simply looking at different information.
Wrapping Things Up
None of this changes what matters most for you. No one, including us, can say for certain how these different signals will play out over the coming weeks, but what we can do is make sure your portfolio and your plan are built to handle either outcome, whether inflation keeps cooling, the Fed holds steady, or world events keep markets bumpy in the meantime. If anything happening right now has you thinking about your own situation, we’re always glad to talk it through.
Data sourced from Deutsche Bank Research, “Early Morning Reid: August 2026 Performance Review,” dated September 1, 2026.
Disclosure
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: This article is produced by Ceva Capital LLC dba Ceva Advisors. Ceva Capital, LLC dba Ceva Advisors is a registered investment adviser registered in the States of Washington and Ohio. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training, and no state or federal securities authority has approved or endorsed this material. All investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The information contained in this report is informational and intended solely to provide educational content to our clients and other readers that we find relevant and interesting. Opinions expressed are just that, and are current only as of the date of publication. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment, tax, or legal advice; we provide advice on an individualized basis only after understanding your circumstances and needs. The information presented in this newsletter is based on reports from Deutsche Bank. Data provided comes from sources we believe are reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Discussion of sectors and the performance of region-specific equities and bonds generally refers to market indices. We use the S&P 500 to represent US large-cap; the Wilshire Small Cap to represent US small-cap; the MSCI ACWI ex US to represent international equities; the US 10-year Treasury Yield to represent US Treasuries; the ICE BofA European Government Bond Index to represent European bonds; the ICE BofA US Corporate Index Effective Yield to represent investment-grade bonds; the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield to represent high-yield bonds. Indices are unmanaged, are not subject to investment management fees or transaction costs, and it is not possible to invest in an index. Index performance can provide general information about how a particular region or investment has performed, but does not provide information about the performance of Ceva’s client portfolios. Actual client performance may differ materially from the index performance discussed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Financial planning is a tool that can help clients consider different current and future scenarios and construct portfolios designed to meet specific goals and address specific risks. Financial planning does not guarantee a positive outcome or prevent loss. It’s important to revisit financial plans and the underlying assumptions of those plans regularly, and to make adjustments as needed to respond to changing circumstances.
